In 1977, Richard A. Epstein published his “game logic and statistical theory”, which summarized all the theoretical and statistical work done on games of chance in the last 400 years and applied it to today’s games. Supplementary, somewhat more specific, information was also provided by Allan N. ” Wilson Casino Gambler Guide , published in 1965. Hence, for a few years there has been no reason for gamblers depend on guesswork or intuitive logic. The following fantasies, however, identified in Epstein’s book, are now commonly believed to be as they were a hundred years ago.
1. “A bet with a low probability of high gain is higher than one with a high probability of small gain”. Thus, a 30 to-1 proposal bet on the craps table is better than a uniform-money wager on the do not pass line and, in roulette, a straight bet up on a number at 35 – 1 is preferable to wagering up red or black, regardless of the odds.
2. “The probability of subsequent independent events is cumulative rather than multiplicative”. So the chance of throwing the seven on the craps table is twice as big with two shoots as with one. If the odds for the subsequent wins in a fair game are 1 in 2 and 2 in 4, then the odds are 3 out of 6, 4 out of 8 and 5 out of 10. In fact, the odds are 3 out of 8, 4 out of 16 and 5 out of 32.
3. “Everything will level. After a streak of wins, the odds of losing rise. “If a craps 12 did not show for a certain number of shoots, it becomes a good bet.If, in roulette, red did not come in. up for a specific number of spins, the black becomes a bad bet.
4. “The probability of a favorable occurrence of events is greater than the unfavorable events of equal probability”. A person with a 100% chance of winning a pool and a 1% chance of dying from cancer, believes that the former is much more likely to happen. Similarly, a gambler believes that his 20-to-1 wagering odds are greater than his chances of losing his money in a bid with a 5% risk-de-spoil factor.
5. “Expectations for current events are based on past events, despite mathematical independence”. So, in blackjack, if you have always broken you hit sixteen that day, you should quit hitting sixteen, regardless of what the dealer holds. If you have drawn poor cards in a number of double-down situations, stop doubling.
6. “A large bet in a game is preferred to a series of small wagers that amount to the same amount in the same game, but a series of small bets in different games is better than a single big wager in any of them” As a result, the $ 100 bet in craps is better than four $ 25 wagers, but four $ 25 wagers, one each on blackjack, baccarat, roulette and craps, are considered preferable to a $ 100 wager on any of them.
7. “A group of cumulative bets is not very interesting, but a multiplication bet is often useful”. Three $ 5 bets on favorites in three consecutive races are not considered very good, but a $ 15 three-horse parlay (if the first horse wins, all the profit is bet on the second; if that horse wins, the total profit is bet on the third ) is considered an excellent bet.
8. “The winning streaks extend long enough and seem to frequently neutralize both losing streaks and intermittent losses”. If you progress your bets in winning series, but you make minimum bets in losing series, you will win enough to offset both the losing series and the short losses of the cycle.
9. “A successful gaming session is the result of your superior ability, but a losing session is the result of bad luck”. When your spouse wins, however, it’s because he was very lucky and when he loses it’s because he played badly.
10. “Seeing is believing, so what you look at to a gambling game is a better basis for a gambling strategy than what some mathematics write in a certain book”. Perhaps he never even played the game. If betting all the hardways to craps and never splitting to blackjack, it is winning for you, which must be the way to go.
11. “Everyone has only so much luck, so he is prepared to recognize it and use it to your advantage”. If you are practicing with dice at home and threw ten passes in a row, stay away from the casino; obviously you have exhausted your share of luck for the day.
12. “There is no reason to be concerned about a proposal where you only have one chance in five hundred to get hurt”. As it is highly unlikely that a blackjack dealer will not break once in nine hands, doubling up after every loss to a $ 2 table with a $ 500 maximum bet will certainly make him a winner before the house limit cleans them off. 13. “The power of positive thinking applies to gambling.” You can not make your point to craps, or draw good cards in blackjack, if you expect to lose.
14. “Not only are some players inherently more fortunate than others, but this also extends to merchants and inanimate objects”. In blackjack, individuals and avoid lucky traders and in craps, search hot tables out and players with hot dice. Identify and refuse to bet on unlucky craps shooters.